7-point lead on Election Day, and they won the national House popular vote by 8. 1/20 - 1/21. Latest 2024 Polls; Republican Nomination; GOP Betting Odds; Democratic Nomination; Dem. Download the data. Democracy Corps is a partisan sponsor for the Democratic Party. V. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. Democrats. A week ago, Republicans led Democrats by 1. Democrats (D) April July October 2014 April July October 38. Download the data. Split Ticket’s calculations showed an R+1. Thanks for joining us!Download the data. Download the data. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. 13-17 found that 40 percent of likely 2024 voters would. Download. 3, 2020. The U. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. 2. In 2018, before voters handed Democrats their first House majority in eight years, the margin on the generic congressional ballot was a statistical dead heat – Republicans 46%, Democrats 45%. No Labels wants to be on the ballot in all 50 states. 21, 2023 leader Trump Trump 60. Our average gave Democrats an 8. 2020. ”. Senate, U. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Sort by date. Download. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. 11-13. How this works. And a nice sanity check for the various 538 house models. There’s been huge variation from survey to survey on the generic. Organizations are considered partisan if they operate on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, PAC, super PAC, hybrid PAC, 501(c)(4), 501(c)(5) or 501(c)(6) organization that conducts a large majority of its political activity on behalf of one political party. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is. The Senate Is Losing One Of Its Few Remaining Moderate Republicans Sep 13, 2023. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Democrats will likely lose West Virginia's Senate seat in 2024. The latest survey marks a decline over the past month from Democrats’ high point (49%), and a boost for the GOP from its 44% low. 538 uses statistical analysis — hard numbers — to tell compelling stories about elections, politics, economics, and American society. November 21, 2023, 3:58 PM. /Grinnell College poll conducted Oct. . Read moreThe Trump team celebrated the Colorado judge's rejection of CREW's challenge to keep Trump off the GOP ballot in 2024 by maintaining that the efforts to invoke Section 3 of the 14th Amendment. West Siena Biden 37, Trump 28, Kennedy 18, West 5 Biden +9 Michigan: Trump vs. Organizations are considered partisan if they operate on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, PAC, super PAC, hybrid PAC, 501(c)(4), 501(c)(5) or 501(c)(6) organization that conducts a large majority of its political activity on behalf of one political. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. They Didn’t Start Voting Differently From Men Until 1980. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. In November 2023, we made. 45. 8. Download. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. And in Pennsylvania, Democrats won a vacant seat to secure a 5-2 majority on the state Supreme Court. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Democrats Republicans; Likely: Leans: Toss up: Likely: Leans: Toss up: Date State Prev ious Status New Status Dems Toss Ups GOP Pick-Up Range Avg Gain Average Gain; 11/6: NY19 NY19: Leans GOPMarch 28-April 5. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. Trump maintains a 10-point lead among White voters, while trailing Biden. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Filter by poll type or state. Nov. Aug. 3 points, according to. 1 Nov. And overall, the latest average from 538 gives the Republicans a very narrow . Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Democrats enjoyed 42 percent support in the congressional generic ballot on January 23, compared to 43. Krishna Rao, president of the Rice Exporters Association,. 1 Oct. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Download the data. Overall, Democrats’ chances of winning the Senate are 68-in-100, according to the Deluxe version of our forecast. Six pollsters 1 have released generic ballot polls both before and after the Dobbs decision. Of those: The Lite forecast called the winner correctly in 482 of 506. House, where 218 seats are needed for a majority (when there are no vacancies). 0 percent to 42. The lead for a Republican candidate has nearly doubled since last week on the generic congressional ballot, according to Rasmussen Reports’ weekly poll released Friday. Republicans took the lead in the generic congressional ballot on July 6, and by Labor Day weekend they had a clear 5-point lead. Download the data. Biden. 2 point swing. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. Download. Democrats (D) +6. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Ashcroft’s original description of the proposed abortion amendments, which could go on the ballot in 2024 if supporters gather enough voter signatures, would have asked voters whether they want. Based on the current generic ballot polling, Republicans are leading by about two points right now, and Crystal Ball predicts a 19-seat loss in the House—taking it from a five-member Democratic. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. S. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. 11/18 - 11/19. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. 78%. 3 . Over that time, the generic-ballot polling average has missed the national House popular vote margin by an average of only 4. 6 attack on the Capitol off the ballot in 2024. Races called correctly. Washington, DC, August 2, 2022. Design and. 9 points. +5. 1,500 LV. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. The generic congressional vote rating indicates which political party voters support in a congressional election. But those days are over. 68%. Pappas UNH Pappas 50, Leavitt 49 Pappas +1 New Hampshire 2nd District - Burns vs. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. 6%, Biden at 45% — in the RCP polling average. It will take 270 electoral votes to win the 2024 presidential election. For example, here are the 2020 results. Download the data. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Download. Generic Congressional BallotUS News Reporter. A new CNN survey released this week showed Democrats leading Republicans by an astounding 56 percent to 38 percent on the generic congressional ballot. The Immigration Hub is a partisan sponsor for the Democratic Party. Organizations are considered partisan if they operate on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, PAC, super PAC, hybrid PAC, 501(c)(4), 501(c)(5) or 501(c)(6) organization that conducts a large majority of its political activity on behalf of one political. 43. Jacobson is a senior correspondent with PolitiFact and senior author of the Almanac of American Politics 2024. 0 points. 3 Trump +46. In that election, the GOP flipped control of the House with a. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. The generic ballot in those combined districts, pitting an unnamed Democratic candidate against an unnamed Republican candidate, was tied at 39 percent among registered voters. Our poll found that Democrats would have a 5-point advantage in the generic. 22 to Nov. 5 points. Download the data. Select a state name to see its presidential voting history. 2022 Generic Congressional Vote. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. Between the House (435 races), Senate (35) and gubernatorial races (36), we issued forecasts in a total of 506 elections. 9. In November 2023, we made. Poll of the week. Download the data. Organizations are considered partisan if they operate on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, PAC, super PAC, hybrid PAC, 501(c)(4), 501(c)(5) or 501(c)(6) organization that conducts a large majority of its political activity on behalf of one political. Updated 11/22/2023 08:59 AM EST. Colorado officials have urged a final decision by Jan. John Anthony Castro, a longshot Republican 2024 presidential candidate, filed a complaint in a New Hampshire court arguing that Trump should be banned from the state's primary ballot while arguing. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. 5 The position of the flag indicates whether the organization is partisan. 804: A: July 14-25. 21, 2023 leader Nov. 2 percent and generic Republicans with an average of 44 percent. 12-16. 9 points on the actual house popular vote in Nov, a 4. Download the data. -- A judge has struck down an effort to enshrine reproductive rights, including abortion, in Nevada’s constitution, as abortion rights. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. 19, 2020. 2018 Generic Congressional Vote. S. ESTIMATE. The U. The @FiveThirtyEight generic-ballot polling average with 7 weeks until E-Day: 1998: D+1. 8, 2022 leader Kelly Kelly +1. 5 percent disapprove (a net approval rating of. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. By Ashley Wu and Molly Cook Escobar. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. Polls analyzed. and the generic ballot test, in particular. Joe Biden Approval. 45. How do you like your House forecast? Lite. The Deluxe version of our model simulates the election 40,000 times to see which party wins the House most often. Bluegrass Freedom Action (PAC) is a partisan sponsor for the Republican Party. Organizations are considered partisan if they operate on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, PAC, super PAC, hybrid PAC, 501(c)(4), 501(c)(5) or 501(c)(6) organization that conducts a large majority of its political activity on behalf of one political. and across different years. By Holly Fuong, Aaron Bycoffe, Humera Lodhi and Nathaniel Rakich. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. SCOTUS Congress Facts First 2024 Elections. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. 5Download the data. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. In our average of polls of the generic congressional ballot, 3 Democrats currently lead by 0. Affiliated with professional polling organization (NCPP/AAPOR/Roper)The Republican Party currently controls the U. Download. A week ago, Republicans led Democrats by 2. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is. Republicans (R) July October 2020 April July October 38 40 42. Independent voters include respondents who. In October 2014, the generic ballot stood here: Fox: D 45%, R 43% (D+2) CNN: D 49%, R 43% (D+6) (NPR’s last poll of registered voters. 47%. Organizations are considered partisan if they operate on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, PAC, super PAC, hybrid PAC, 501(c)(4), 501(c)(5) or 501(c)(6) organization that conducts a large majority of its political activity on behalf of one political. Download. 2002: R+0. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. Poll type. Republican Rep. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Download. The prediction is that the Republicans will win 47% of the representatives in the Electoral College (253), and the Democrats. President: general election, Virginia, 2024. 8 percent). Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is. Note that these polls differ by 1 point for Ds. Trump. 4 points. Andy Beshear won reelection in Kentucky. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Notice any bugs or missing polls? Send us an email. 300: LV: Aug. 6 percent). The position of the flag indicates whether the organization is partisan. Ashcroft’s original description of the proposed abortion amendments, which could go on the ballot in 2024 if supporters gather enough voter signatures, would have. SEIU is a partisan sponsor for the Democratic Party. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Club for Growth Action (super PAC) Club for Growth Action (super PAC) is a partisan sponsor for the Republican Party. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. The generic ballot model uses two predictors — the generic ballot along with the number of seats defended by the president’s party — to generate forecasts of seat swing in midterm elections. The results indicate. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. +1. Kennedy Harvard-Harris Trump 44, Biden 36, Kennedy 21 Trump +8 General Election. ”. Download the data. The position of the flag indicates whether the organization is partisan. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Updating average for each Republican candidate in 2024 primary polls, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects. and the generic ballot test, in particular. Democrats +2. Races called correctly. The generic congressional vote question does not. New Hampshire 1st District - Leavitt vs. For one, Democrats are outpacing President Joe Biden’s abysmal approval ratings in generic ballots: Slightly more than 43 percent of voters say that, if the election were held today, they would. 2014 Generic Congressional Vote. RealClearPolitics - President Biden Job Approval. As recently as the 1970s, a voter’s preferences were only loosely moored to partisanship. We include three types of polls: General Election, Primaries, and Favorable/Unfavorable Ratings for each candidate. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. 10, 2023 The Polls Were Historically Accurate In 2022 By Nathaniel Rakich Filed under. A week ago, Democrats led Republicans by 0. As you can see, the president’s party lost. Based on New York Times/Siena College polls of 3,662 registered voters from Oct. Download. On Election Day 2022, Republicans had a 1. . Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is. Specifically, we looked at what would happen if you made a forecast based solely on the partisan lean of a state or district, plus generic-ballot results. Download. Methodology Sources. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. S. On average, Democrats trailed by. By Ashley. Nov. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. 508: LV: Nov. Updating average for each Republican candidate in 2024 primary polls, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. The position of the flag indicates whether the organization is partisan. Organizations are considered partisan if they operate on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, PAC, super PAC, hybrid PAC, 501(c)(4), 501(c)(5) or 501(c)(6) organization that conducts a large majority of its political activity on behalf of one political. Download the data. You can contact your state or local election administrator for an official sample ballot. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Former President Donald J. The Senate Is Losing One Of Its Few Remaining Moderate Republicans Sep 13, 2023. Aug. While it’s definitely too early to hang your hat on any 2024 general-election polls, a Selzer & Co. Few House seats look more appealing for Democrats to flip than Arizona's 1st District in 2024. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. 2024 Republican Presidential Nomination: Trafalgar Group (R) Trump 50, DeSantis 13, Haley 15, Ramaswamy 4, Christie 5, Scott 4, Burgum 3, Hutchinson 0: Trump +35: 2024 Republican Presidential. Generic ballot; Trump approval; Search for a race or candidate + Back to the national overview. Poll type. Download the data. Club for Growth Action (super PAC) Club for Growth Action (super PAC) is a partisan sponsor for the Republican Party. Kuster UNH Kuster 53, Burns 45 Kuster +8 2022 Generic Congressional Vote. For the 18 midterm elections that have taken place since 1946, I compared the final generic-ballot polling of the cycle by Gallup or the final polling average from RealClearPoliticsGallup surveys. Their surveys with Siena College during. Why 'Bidenomics' Isn't Working For Biden Sep 12, 2023; 2024. Senate has 51 Democrats (including three independents) and 49 Republicans. Listen. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is. In testing this on 2018 and 2020 races. The 2023 elections were a victory for liberal governance. Democrats managed to remain ahead of Republicans until November, when the GOP took over the lead in 538’s average of generic congressional ballot polls. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. 7-10. Trump. S. avg. “Two weeks out from the midterms, evidence points to a re-emerging red wave that could sweep in GOP control of both chambers,” Axios (. S. All 2014 Generic Congressional Vote Polling Data. The position of the flag indicates whether the organization is partisan. Women Won The Right To Vote 100 Years Ago. Wisconsin +2 dem. Biden. Download. 2-point advantage in the national generic ballot, according to the FiveThirtyEight average. In our average of polls of the generic congressional ballot, 2 Republicans currently lead by 2. Organizations are considered partisan if they operate on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, PAC, super PAC, hybrid PAC, 501(c)(4), 501(c)(5) or 501(c)(6) organization that conducts a large majority of its political activity on behalf of one political. According to FiveThirtyEight’s presidential approval tracker, 2 42. 43. S. Download. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Aug. Friday’s poll showed the generic Republican candidate is up seven points, with 48 percent of the likely U. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is. 2024 Republican Debates. A higher share of women than men have voted for Democrats in every midterm election since 1980, and in the past two midterm cycles the gap has been even bigger. Design and development by Ryan Best, Aaron Bycoffe, Holly Fuong, Christopher Groskopf, Ritchie King, Ella Koeze, Dhrumil Mehta, Jasmine Mithani, Mary Radcliffe, Anna Wiederkehr and Julia Wolfe. Democratic Gov. Organizations are considered partisan if they operate on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, PAC, super PAC, hybrid PAC, 501(c)(4), 501(c)(5) or 501(c)(6) organization that conducts a large majority of its political activity on behalf of one political. Filter by poll type or state. 46%. 43. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. ESTIMATE. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. The position of the flag indicates whether the organization is partisan. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Ron DeSantis’s 538 polling average in the 2024 Republican Presidential Primary is. Download the data. MAJORITY 255 REP SEATS 240 225 225 240 255 DEM SEATS 84 in 100 84 in 100 Republicans win Republicans win 16 in. Download the data. Ohio voted to enshrine abortion rights in its state constitution. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Organizations are considered partisan if they operate on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, PAC, super PAC, hybrid PAC, 501(c)(4), 501(c)(5) or 501(c)(6) organization that conducts a large majority of its political activity on behalf of one political. Organizations are considered partisan if they operate on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, PAC, super PAC, hybrid PAC, 501(c)(4), 501(c)(5) or 501(c)(6) organization that conducts a large majority of its political activity on behalf of one political. That’s an 18 percentage. The previous edition expanded and rearranged the total number of competitive seats in preparation for the gradual elimination of our Tossups, a process that will be finished by November 8th. The generic ballot and President Biden’s approval rating have also not shifted very much. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is. 2% Republican 44. (Some of the “national vote” numbers in this table differ slightly from those in 538 ’s record, but the current numbers are all verified on Wikipedia’s website. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. All 2014 Generic Congressional Vote Polling Data. 68%. The result was a. 1 percent of Americans approve of the job Biden is doing as president, while 52. Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Nov 21 ABC News Photo Illustration The Utah 2nd District special election could be closer than you think Democrats are waging a strong campaign in this solid-red district. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. There are 34 seats up in 2024 - including a special election in Nebraska - of which 23 are held by Democrats or Independents. In our average of polls of the generic congressional ballot, Democrats currently lead by 7. This owes to both the House and Senate maps being tilted against them . 11, 2023. 2024 Presidential Ballot Access . 2024 Elections Truth-o-Meter True Mostly True Half True. Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major. His predecessor Donald Trump, a member. The graph below shows how the FiveThirtyEight generic-ballot polling average 2 shifted in the last 90 days of the 2006, 2010, 2014 and 2018 midterms. Biden up 7 points over Trump in 2024 popular vote: poll. FiveThirtyEight’s pollster ratings are calculated by analyzing the historical accuracy and methodology of each firm’s polls. November 16, 2023, 7:48 AM 2:10 What can the election earlier this month tell us about the 2024 ele. Organizations are considered partisan if they operate on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, PAC, super PAC, hybrid PAC, 501(c)(4), 501(c)(5) or 501(c)(6) organization that conducts a large majority of its political activity on behalf of one political. 8, 2022. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown.